The two numbers that matter
1 in 40,475,358
Match 6. 1 of the 40,475,358 possible tickets.
1 in 87.57
All 4 divisions added together — 462,203 winning tickets in the full set. That is what overall odds means.
40,475,358
Every distinct way to choose 6 numbers from 58. The game's matrix is 6 of 58.
Every prize tier
| Division | Winning combinations | Odds | Share of tickets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match 6Top prize | 1 | 1 in 40,475,358 | |
| Match 5 | 312 | 1 in 129,728.71 | |
| Match 4 | 19,890 | 1 in 2,034.96 | |
| Match 3 | 442,000 | 1 in 91.57 |
What 1 in 40,475,358 looks like
25
Calling a fair coin correctly 25 times in a row sits at roughly the same probability. Doubling the pool costs one extra flip.
9.8
Same idea with a six-sided die: guess the face 9.8 times in succession and you have matched the jackpot's chance.
1.3 yr
Point at one random second inside 1.3 years and try to hit a second chosen in advance.
258,575 yr
One line in every draw, 3 a week, is how long it takes before a jackpot is the expected outcome rather than a surprise.
Where the jackpot number comes from
There are 40,475,358 distinct Ultra Lotto 6/58 tickets. Count them and you have the odds; there is no second step. The same count works for any lottery you care to check.
Choosing 6 numbers from 58 without repeats gives 40,475,358 combinations. That is the whole ticket, so that count is the whole story. One of those tickets wins the top prize.
Lower divisions work the same way, only with more tickets qualifying. Match 5 of the 6 main numbers and you get to choose which one you missed, and what you put in its place. Each of those freedoms multiplies the count, which is why the rows below the top one cover so many more tickets.
Buying more tickets adds, it does not multiply
Ten different lines give you ten of the 40,475,358 tickets, so the jackpot chance goes from 1 in 40,475,358 to 1 in 4,047,536. A hundred lines gets you to 1 in 404,753.58. The relationship is flat and boring: spend ten times as much, get ten times the chance of a number that started out very small. What that costs per extra chance is worked out in full elsewhere.
This is the honest reason we do not sell systems, wheels or hot-number lists. None of them changes the count above, and no ball in the pool is ever due. The only lever anyone actually has is how many of the 40,475,358 tickets they hold, and buying enough of them to matter costs far more than the prize is worth. The gap between what a line costs and what it returns on average is its expected value, and on every game here it is negative.
Quick picks and hand-picked numbers are the same bet
A quick pick is one of the 40,475,358 tickets. Your birthday line is one of the 40,475,358 tickets. The machine does not know which is which, and no sequence is excluded: 1-2-3-4-5-6 is exactly as likely as any scatter of numbers that looks more random.
One thing your choice does change is who you split with. Dates crowd the numbers 1 to 31, so a jackpot won on a birthday line tends to be shared more ways than one won on a line using the full range up to 58. That affects the size of a win, never the chance of one, and it is the only real difference between letting the machine choose and choosing yourself. Our Ultra Lotto 6/58 quick pick draws from the whole range for that reason.
Ultra Lotto 6/58 odds — frequently asked
1 in 40,475,358. There are 40,475,358 ways to fill in a 6 of 58 ticket and exactly one of them is the winning line. Every one of those tickets has the same chance, including yours.
1 in 87.57, counting all 4 divisions together. The largest single contribution comes from match 3, which is 1 in 91.57 on its own, and no other division is won more often.
It adds them up, nothing more. Ten different lines instead of one moves the jackpot from 1 in 40,475,358 to 1 in 4,047,536. The gain is real and it is linear, which is why it never gets you anywhere near even money.
No. The draw has no idea where a line came from, so a machine-chosen ticket and a hand-written one have identical odds.
No. Each draw puts all 58 numbers back in the machine, so a number that has not appeared in a year is exactly as likely as one drawn last week. Records of past draws describe history; they do not constrain the next draw.