The two numbers that matter
1 in 290,472,336
5 numbers + Mega Ball. 1 of the 290,472,336 possible tickets.
1 in 23.07
All 9 divisions added together — 12,588,912 winning tickets in the full set. That is what overall odds means.
290,472,336
290,472,336 = 5 from 70 times 1 from 24. The game's matrix is 5 of 70 + Mega Ball.
Every prize tier
| Division | Winning combinations | Odds | Share of tickets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 numbers + Mega BallTop prize | 1 | 1 in 290,472,336 | |
| 5 numbers, no Mega Ball | 23 | 1 in 12,629,232 | |
| 4 numbers + Mega Ball | 325 | 1 in 893,761.03 | |
| 4 numbers, no Mega Ball | 7,475 | 1 in 38,859.18 | |
| 3 numbers + Mega Ball | 20,800 | 1 in 13,965.02 | |
| 3 numbers, no Mega Ball | 478,400 | 1 in 607.17 | |
| 2 numbers + Mega Ball | 436,800 | 1 in 665.00 | |
| 1 number + Mega Ball | 3,385,200 | 1 in 85.81 | |
| Mega Ball only | 8,259,888 | 1 in 35.17 |
What 1 in 290,472,336 looks like
28
Calling a fair coin correctly 28 times in a row sits at roughly the same probability. Doubling the pool costs one extra flip.
11
Same idea with a six-sided die: guess the face 11 times in succession and you have matched the jackpot's chance.
9.2 yr
Point at one random second inside 9.2 years and try to hit a second chosen in advance.
2,783,502 yr
One line in every draw, 2 a week, is how long it takes before a jackpot is the expected outcome rather than a surprise.
Where the jackpot number comes from
There are 290,472,336 distinct Mega Millions tickets. Count them and you have the odds; there is no second step. The same count works for any lottery you care to check.
Choosing 5 numbers from 70 without repeats gives 12,103,014 combinations. The Mega Ball pool is drawn separately, so each of those lines pairs with each of the 24 possible Mega Ball numbers, and the two counts multiply. One of those tickets wins the top prize.
Lower divisions work the same way, only with more tickets qualifying. Match 4 of the 5 main numbers and you get to choose which one you missed, and what you put in its place. Each of those freedoms multiplies the count, which is why the rows below the top one cover so many more tickets.
Buying more tickets adds, it does not multiply
Ten different lines give you ten of the 290,472,336 tickets, so the jackpot chance goes from 1 in 290,472,336 to 1 in 29,047,234. A hundred lines gets you to 1 in 2,904,723. The relationship is flat and boring: spend ten times as much, get ten times the chance of a number that started out very small. What that costs per extra chance is worked out in full elsewhere.
This is the honest reason we do not sell systems, wheels or hot-number lists. None of them changes the count above, and no ball in the pool is ever due. The only lever anyone actually has is how many of the 290,472,336 tickets they hold, and buying enough of them to matter costs far more than the prize is worth. The gap between what a line costs and what it returns on average is its expected value, and on every game here it is negative.
Quick picks and hand-picked numbers are the same bet
A quick pick is one of the 290,472,336 tickets. Your birthday line is one of the 290,472,336 tickets. The machine does not know which is which, and no sequence is excluded: 1-2-3-4-5 is exactly as likely as any scatter of numbers that looks more random.
One thing your choice does change is who you split with. Dates crowd the numbers 1 to 31, so a jackpot won on a birthday line tends to be shared more ways than one won on a line using the full range up to 70. That affects the size of a win, never the chance of one, and it is the only real difference between letting the machine choose and choosing yourself. Our Mega Millions quick pick draws from the whole range for that reason.
Mega Millions odds — frequently asked
1 in 290,472,336. There are 290,472,336 ways to fill in a 5 of 70 + Mega Ball ticket and exactly one of them is the winning line. Every one of those tickets has the same chance, including yours.
1 in 23.07, counting all 9 divisions together. The largest single contribution comes from mega ball only, which is 1 in 35.17 on its own, and no other division is won more often.
It adds them up, nothing more. Ten different lines instead of one moves the jackpot from 1 in 290,472,336 to 1 in 29,047,234. The gain is real and it is linear, which is why it never gets you anywhere near even money.
No. The draw has no idea where a line came from, so a machine-chosen ticket and a hand-written one have identical odds.
No. Mega Millions pays 3 of its 9 divisions to tickets that miss the Mega Ball entirely. Matching it lifts a ticket into the higher of two divisions with the same main-number count.